Saturday, July 20, 2013

Detroit, tip of the iceburg; or just a bump in the road?

By now everyone has heard about Detroit's bankruptcy. So does this portend the beginning of hundreds of municipal funds becoming worthless; or will Washington bail everyone out? I think Washington will bail out the Muni-bond sector just like they bailed out the mortgage business. After a tidal wave of defaults it will become apparent that wealthy people need to be bailed out again. They will also bail out the union members whose pensions are at risk.
They will just use quantitative easing money (which is just paper, anyway) to bail out everyone affected by the various bankruptcies.
I'm wondering how to profit from all of this. I feel certain that Detroit is the tip of the iceberg and we can expect more chaos. In the short term, interest rates will go up and trash the stock market, as well as gold.
I was thinking about buying junk muni bonds. Since I think the government will bail out that sector just like they did the banks; that might be a good, (contrarian) bet. If a person was to wait about a week or two; those bond will go down to levels lower than they deserve. I would pick the bonds of cities which may be considered "too big to fail". Detroit muni's might be my first pick. Then I might buy bonds from Michigan, which, apparently, has the same problems that Detroit has. California is also on the brink of bankruptcy, as well as New Jersey, and New York. Maybe a person should wait until they actually go bankrupt to buy them.
Of course, I wouldn't risk money that I couldn't afford to lose. I've lost a ton of money on junk bonds before. It's possible that your money in junk bonds will just evaporate, while the unions get bailed out. That is what happened with Delphi and GM.
On a different topic; I bought a .22 rifle last Sunday. It's a Mossberg that I got for $107. I was surprised that it was so inexpensive. I priced a Henry Survival rifle at $230. The Henry folds up into the stock so it would be handier, but the Mossberg will get the job done. If the economy totally collapses I'll be ready to hunt squirrels and rabbits for food. If I go out west I'll be able to find plenty of rattlesnakes for food.
I feel that this was a great step towards being independent of the civilized world.
I need to sell more of my etchings before I head out west to prospect for gold. I'll see if I can post a picture of one of my etchings here. It's named "Some with Strong Backs Waning".

I've got it hanging in my bedroom.
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