Saturday, February 14, 2015

My Take on Oil Prices

I haven't discussed the price of oil in this blog, before now.
I think oil (like everything else) has a totally manipulated price. It's a commodity like metals and grains; therefore it's traded on the commodity markets. There are around 100 paper ounces for every physical ounce that's actually moved. Hence the market manipulators are setting it's price just like everything else.
I think they drove it down to punish Russia for their involvement in the Ukraine. This is done, primarily by manipulating the commodity market; but also by having the Saudis keep their production up.
This is backfiring on the U.S. It's risking collapsing the bond market and hence driving the stock market into freefall.
I expect the U.S. to reverse itself, soon. I think they will have ISIS invade Saudi Arabia. That will drive oil through the roof and save the stock market without having to blame the U.S.
I'm using stock options to bet that this will happen.
I was first alerted to a change in the price of oil by watching Jim Cramer on CNBC. He was talking about the predictions by an analyst who uses Fibonacci progressions. This is similar to technical analysis, but it uses Fibonacci numbers instead. That was something developed in Italy a long time ago.
It seems to be working but I think it is preceding the news of a war in the Middle East, again.
Anyway, I have a few options that will take advantage of that and on Tuesday I hope to buy some more. I could be right; in which case I'll have plenty of money for my move to California.
If I'm wrong, I may have to stay in Iowa until I can more easily afford the move.
I'm thinking about working at Luther or NICC as a work-study student, this Summer. In the Summer a person can work as a work-study student for  30 hours a week. That means I could make around $2000 in the Summer. If I stayed on another semester,I might get some more work-study time in.
That would go a long way towards financing my trip to California.
If I could sell my etchings I would have no trouble financing my move. Therefore, I'll start showing pictures of the etchings (done by Malcolm Childers) on my blog. The first one I'll show is Frenchy's Flathead Flyer.

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