Monday, December 15, 2014

Work is Being Done on my Motor Home

Finally, some work is being done on my motor home.
The roof vent that is stuck in an open position is being replaced. I took the door off of the old refrigerator; it now needs the compressor removed to get it through the door. Hopefully, we'll find out if the furnace and water heater work. The new refrigerator needs to be installed before we can run the furnace and water heater.
I have the feeling that I'll have a working motor home, soon.
I'm hoping to take it to LaCrosse for a few days for a "shake-down cruise". The best way to find things that don't work is to actually try to use them.
On a different topic, I'm thinking about getting back to trading options.
I was watching Harry Dent on the Greg Hunter channel on YouTube, yesterday.
He expects a major depression before the hyper-inflation. He uses demographics and cycles in his work.
He was saying that gold and silver are due to go down in a big way.
This is the opposite of what Harvey Organ was saying about silver. He says that we'll be running out of silver in a very short period of time.
I feel that precious metals are due to go one way or the other in a big way, very soon. Therefore I'll cover both bases with an option spread. That means that while I bet that something will go one way I also make a bet that it will go the other way as well. It sounds like you will give up what you make when it moves in one direction. That is true to an extent. The thing is that options are so leveraged (meaning you get a lot of payback for a small move) that if things start moving big I'll make up what I lost by betting in the wrong direction and then the rest of the move is pure profit.
This would work on something that you expect a big move but you're not really sure which way it will move.
I'm going to lean towards the downward direction by having more options betting against the price moving up. In fact I'm thinking about buying 4 gold, put options for every 1 silver,  call option.
I do expect a deflationary period before the hyper-inflation. That will be my bias.
That's all I have for now.
Later.

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